Educational Model: Consequences of a Local Nuclear Conflict ("Nuclear Winter")
The model illustrates the "nuclear winter" scenario — a proposed sequence of events in the event of nuclear-weapon use
This model is a component of the IUMC (Innovative Educational and Methodological Complex) “Ecology: Constructing the Biosphere,” developed in 2008 by D. A. Shabanov, A. G. Kozlenko, and M. A. Kravchenko by order of the NTFP (National Training Foundation) of the Russian Federation (more about this project is discussed in the article “Innovation and Reality”; reasons why this complex is not used are briefly described in the column “Textbooks: Straight into the Day After Tomorrow”). This model is posted here for educational use. The model allows examination of the interconnections among the main processes in the scenario of a nuclear conflict. The theoretical material related to the model is in the section Military Threat of the manual “Ecology: Biology of Interactions.” Some materials that help evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as a tool of knowledge are provided in the supplement Models, Their Limitations and Risks of the same textbook. The model illustrates the “nuclear winter” scenario — a proposed sequence of events at Earth’s surface and in the atmosphere in the case of massive use of nuclear weapons (according to the models of N. N. Moiseev and C. Sagan). Under this scenario, the result of a local nuclear war is destructive changes in the biosphere. It should be emphasized that the “nuclear winter” model has been neither convincingly proven (although the described effects were reproduced in two fundamentally different models) nor convincingly refuted. To begin working with the model, click the window with introductory text. Instructions for working with the model are located at the very bottom of its window; if these instructions do not fit in the box, they can be scrolled up and down with the arrows on the right. Some tasks that can be solved while working with the model: 1. Examine the consequences of a local nuclear conflict in accordance with the “nuclear winter” theory. 2. Determine which consequences of nuclear war would be more devastating for humanity: direct ones (associated with damaging factors of nuclear explosions) or indirect ones (consequences of fires and the climate changes they cause). 3. Determine the probable fate of humanity after nuclear war if the Sagan-Moiseev model is correct. In your opinion, how should the disputed inevitability of such events influence perception of this model’s predictions?