VI-14. Military Danger (in development; some material is outdated) As we can see, global humanity faces a serious challenge that threatens its very existence. If the efforts expended by people were proportional to this danger, changing the nature of our species' relationship with the environment would become the main task of every government and every person. But, despite its globality, humanity is divided into parts, each of which primarily has its own narrow self-interests. "Developed" countries (here we can use the conditional name "Global North") strive to maintain control over the world economy and their leading position in the world. Developing countries, the "Global South," strive to change the existing geopolitical inequality. Various terrorist groups are ready to sacrifice human lives to destroy the established order. As a result, direct military spending worldwide significantly exceeds spending on healthcare and education. Indirect defense costs are much higher. The military-industrial complexes of developed countries are the most powerful economic groups with their own political interests. Military facilities pose a special danger due to catastrophes – both of sabotage origin and "accidental," and ecologically caused. Military activity is carried out under a veil of secrecy, which complicates control and creates conditions for abuse. Nuclear explosions (about three thousand) have sharply increased radioactive contamination of the environment. Explosions in the upper atmosphere, conducted by the USSR in the 1960s, significantly changed the structure of the Earth's magnetosphere and radiation belts. New types of environmental weapons have been and are being developed, including technologies that cause earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, typhoons and other catastrophic weather changes, and the creation of artificial ozone holes over enemy territory. The improvement of chemical and bacteriological weapons, and methods of influencing the psyche, continues. Preparation for war causes enormous damage to the environment, but waging hostilities is even more dangerous. The nature of casualties is changing. In World War I, civilians accounted for 5% of casualties; in World War II, about 50%; now, up to 95%. For the first time, ecological weapons were massively used by the USA in Vietnam (1964–1975). In this war, about 100,000 tons of toxic chemicals were dispersed, destroying vegetation. 325 hectares of tropical forests (2% of Vietnam's total territory) were cut down by bulldozers weighing 33 tons. These bulldozers were wittily nicknamed "Roman plows," recalling one of the first uses of ecological weapons in history. After capturing Carthage, Rome plowed the fields of the defeated enemy, after first covering them with sea salt. Retreating from Kuwait in 1991, Iraq destroyed and set fire to about 700 oil wells. In flames over 100 m high, about 1 million tons of oil burned daily. The fires were extinguished only after six months. Huge territories are rendered unusable due to mining (a "Mina-Malutka" mine costs 3 US dollars, and its neutralization costs 300–1000 dollars. In Kuwait, Iraq laid at least 7 million mines). In 2022–2023, Ukraine became the world leader in the number of mines laid on its territory. The specifics of military operations are such that most often, during their conduct, the very resources for which they were initiated are destroyed. The creation of nuclear, and then thermonuclear, weapons became one of the triumphant achievements of human reason that threaten the very existence of humanity. The assertion that nuclear war would cause a "nuclear winter" was made in 1983 and became one of the important results of computer simulation modeling of the climate. The models developed in the USSR by a team including Nikita Moiseev, and in the USA by Carl Sagan's group, were built on different principles. However, in both these models, a nuclear conflict with fires in large cities would lead to the formation of a smoke layer in the upper atmosphere. Within a short time, such a layer would spread across the entire planet. The disruption of normal atmospheric circulation, according to these models, would lead to this smoke layer persisting for several years. During this time, the surface of almost the entire planet would be covered by severe frost, causing the destruction of the entire biosphere and the death of the part of humanity that survived the nuclear war from cold and hunger. The "nuclear winter" scenario gained wide publicity and became one of the reasons that changed humanity's attitude towards the accumulation of nuclear arsenals. The end of the Cold War and even the collapse of the USSR are events somehow related to the results of the described modeling. Significant progress in modeling the climatic consequences of nuclear war has not yet been achieved. "Nuclear winter" is likely possible, but what conflict could trigger it remains unclear to this day. The assumption by N.N. Moiseev and C. Sagan that it could result from a local nuclear conflict in a large city has not yet been refuted or confirmed. Opponents of the "nuclear winter" scenario argue that since about 3,000 nuclear explosions produced by humanity have not triggered the described effect, it should not be feared. This objection is insufficiently substantiated. With the exception of the American bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear weapons have not been used (so far!) in combat. However, it is obvious that climate change is triggered not by the sum of warheads detonated at different times and in different places on the planet, but by a single conflict zone in which the amount of smoke lifted into the atmosphere exceeds a certain threshold. The emission of smoke and dust into the atmosphere is associated not only with the explosions of the atomic bombs themselves but also with the effect of the "firestorm" they cause. The most terrible examples of firestorms known to humanity were associated with the bombing of Hamburg by British and American aviation on July 27, 1943, and Dresden on February 13 and 14, 1945. Fires from individual buildings merged into single columns of fire. The rapid rise of hot air (smoke during these bombings rose 8–12 kilometers!) caused a powerful inflow of surrounding air, which contributed to intense burning. Eyewitnesses described how a strong wind picked up people running through the city and lifted them upwards, into the flames. The first atomic bomb, detonated over Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, caused a firestorm, while the second, dropped three days later on Nagasaki, did not lead to such consequences, although it was more powerful. This was due to Nagasaki being located in a highly dissected terrain and part of the city being shaded from the nuclear flash. Scientific and technological progress has a significant impact on the nature of hostilities. For example, the acute phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began in 2022, has become the first major war where small unmanned aviation plays a huge role. Among other things, the widespread use of drones has led to the war being broadcast, literally, live. On October 31, 2023, hostilities were extended into space. A Soviet-era R17 missile was launched from Yemen towards Israel; at an altitude of over 100 km above the Earth's surface, it was intercepted by an Israeli Arrow-2 missile defense system. Unfortunately, there is every reason to expect the development of such events.
Batrachos